The Beginnings of War: Will it be the Destruction of the World?
War is inevitable within the modern world. The political agendas of countries are prioritized over the needs of citizens, especially when economic instability is present. The idea of nuclear warfare is recent and has developed into a dangerous one. The prospect of a nuclear conflict has lingered beneath political tensions, but has not seemed as a plausible scenario in the current Middle Eastern environment. The Cold War (Increased Tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union in the late 1900’s) had established numerous doctrines of deterrence; recent tensions raise the question of whether the recent conflict is severe enough for nuclear capabilities to be involved. Although the risk of a nuclear conflict in the Middle East has increased, it does not mean that a nuclear conflict will happen.
To comprehend the current nuclear situation in the world, the reforms made during the Cold War are immensely important. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) solidified during high-stakes events such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, creating powerful nuclear incentives for countries that have this superpower to avoid full-on confrontation. This logic was presented in the creation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which essentially aimed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons while promoting peaceful methods and disarmament. Although flawed, these frameworks established an expectation for the entire world: nuclear weapons were tools of deterrence, not warfighting.
In the Middle East, nuclear policy has been defined by its askewed borders rather than formal adherence. Israel's long-standing policy of nuclear ambiguity (not confirming nor denying the presence of nuclear power) has functioned as a form of deterrence. This approach has avoided triggering regional problems while maintaining its superiority in the area. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a representation of diplomatic containment for nuclear risk in this specific region. By developing stricter limitations on Iran’s nuclear footprint in exchange for sanctions relief, the agreement temporarily reduced concerns about proliferation. Although in recent years the erosion of this agreement shows the weakening limitations that had once fought against the escalation of a larger war.
Recent conflicts involving proxy forces and cross-border strikes have made the entire situation even more complicated. Groups such as Hezbollah, involved in this war, demonstrate how groups not affiliated with the government and the government itself are involved. This burring of borders regarding authority questions the accountability and rational government decisions. In addition, advances in technology regarding missiles and tactical weapons have lowered the threshold for nuclear use exponentially. While many doctrines had attempted to prevent this, new advances must be factored into policy-making.
In conclusion, although the Middle Eastern conflict is escalating at an alarming rate, the current situation does not signal any potential use for nuclear power yet. The gradual deterioration of the NPT and the JCPOA has created a more volatile environment in a technologically advanced world. Preventing nuclear escalation will require extensive diplomatic efforts, but a re-evaluation of these weapons themselves.
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